主  題：Do Expectation and External Shocks matter for Housing Business Cycles in China: evidence from an estimated open-economy DSGE model

內容簡介：We study the sources of fluctuations in the housing market of China. We construct an estimated open-economy DSGE model and the macroeconomic time-series data of China to assess the quantitative impacts of both contemporaneous and expectation shocks to domestic and external fundamentals on housing market dynamics. Shocks to expectation and external fundamentals play a significant role. Cyclical fluctuations in housing prices and housing investment are mainly driven by contemporaneous shocks related to foreign housing preference and terms of trade, and by expectation shocks related to domestic consumption-goods technology, housing preference and terms of trade. The spillover effects of external shocks on housing prices are remarkably larger than that of domestic shocks.

報告人：封寧    博士

時  間：2017-06-15    10:00

地  點：位育樓117

舉辦單位：經濟與金融研究院  科研部